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4C Publications
Clarke J.J., Huntingford C., Ritchie P.D.L. and Peter M Cox P.M. (2023). Seeking more robust early warning signals for climate tipping points: the ratio of spectra method (ROSA). Environ. Res. Lett. 18(3): 035006. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbc8d
Dunkl I., Lovenduski N., Collalti A., et al (2023). Gross primary productivity and the predictability of CO2: more uncertainty in what we predict than how well we predict it. Biogeosciences 20: 3523–3538. DOI: 10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023
Feng M., Peng S., Wang Y. et al. (2023). Overestimated nitrogen loss from denitrification for natural terrestrial ecosystems in CMIP6 Earth System Models. Nat Commun 14: 3065. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38803-z
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Heinrich V.H.A., Vancutsem C., Dalagnol R. et al. (2023). The carbon sink of secondary and degraded humid tropical forests. Nature 615: 436–442. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05679-w
Jiang L.Q., Dunne J., Carter B.R., et al. (2023). Global surface ocean acidification indicators from 1750 to 2100. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 15: e2022MS003563. DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003563
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Joos F., Hameau A., Frölicher T.L., and Stephenson D.B. (2023). Anthropogenic attribution of the increasing seasonal amplitude in surface ocean pCO2. Geophysical Research Letters 50: e2023GL102857. DOI: 10.1029/2023GL102857
Keetz L.T., Lieungh E., Karimi-Asli K., et al. (2023). Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform. Global Change Biology 00: 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16808
Keppler L., Landschützer P., Lauvset S. K., and Gruber N. (2023). Recent trends and variability in the oceanic storage of dissolved inorganic carbon. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37: e2022GB007677. DOI: 10.1029/2022GB007677
Koven C.D., Sanderson B.M. and Swann A.L.S. (2023). Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 18: 014017. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab1a
Landschützer P., Tanhua T., Behncke J., and Keppler L. (2023). Sailing through the southern seas of air–sea CO2 flux uncertainty. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 381: 20220064. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0064
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Li H., Ilyina T., Loughran T. (2023). Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model. Earth Syst. Dynam. 14: 101–119. DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
Li L., Fang Y., Zheng Z., et al. (2023). A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0). Geosci. Model Dev. 16: 4017–4040. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-4017-2023
Liu L., Ciais P., Wu M. et al. (2023). Increasingly negative tropical water–interannual CO2 growth rate coupling. Nature 618: 755-760. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06056-x
Ma D., Gregor L., and Gruber N. (2023). Four decades of trends and drivers of global surface ocean acidification. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37: e2023GB007765. DOI: 10.1029/2023GB007765
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Müller J.D., Gruber N., Carter B., et al. (2023). Decadal trends in the oceanic storage of anthropogenic carbon from 1994 to 2014. AGU Advances 4: e2023AV000875. DOI: 10.1029/2023AV000875
Palmer T.E., McSweeney C.F., Booth, B.B.B., et al. (2023). Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe. Earth Syst. Dynam. 14: 457–483. DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
Rodgers K. B., Schwinger J., Fassbender A. J., et al. (2023). Seasonal variability of the surface ocean carbon cycle: A synthesis. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37: e2023GB007798. DOI: 10.1029/2023GB007798
Schlund M., Hassler B., Lauer A., et al (2023). Evaluation of native Earth system model output with ESMValTool v2.6.0. Geosci. Model Dev. 16: 315–333. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-315-2023
Sparey M., Cox P., and Williamson M. S. (2023). Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections. Biogeosciences 20: 451–488. DOI: 10.5194/bg-20-451-2023
Terhaar J., Frölicher T.L., and Joos F. (2023). Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Environ. Res. Lett. 18: 024033. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acaf91
Tschumi E., Lienert S., Bastos A., et al. (2023). Large variability in simulated response of vegetation composition and carbon dynamics to variations in drought-heat occurrence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 128: e2022JG007332. DOI: 10.1029/2022JG007332
Varney R. M., Chadburn S. E., Burke E. J., et al. (2023). Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming. Biogeosciences 20: 3767–3790. DOI: 10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
Wright R. M., Le Quéré C., Mayot N., et al. (2023). Fingerprint of climate change on Southern Ocean carbon storage. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 37: e2022GB007596. DOI: 10.1029/2022GB007596
Abadie C., Maignan F., Remaud M., et al. (2022). Global modelling of soil carbonyl sulfide exchanges. Biogeosciences 19: 2427-2463. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022
Allen M.R., Peters G.P., Shine K.P. et al. (2022). Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets. npj Clim Atmos Sci 5: 5. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2
Argles A.P.K., Moore J.R., and Cox P.M. (2022). Dynamic Global Vegetation Models: Searching for the balance between demographic process representation and computational tractability. PLOS Clim 1(9): e0000068. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000068
Bopp L., Aumont O., Kwiatkowski L., et al. (2022). Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change. Biogeosciences 19: 4267-4285. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022
Braghiere R. K., Fisher J. B., Allen K., et al. (2022). Modeling Global Carbon Costs of Plant Nitrogen and Phosphorus Acquisition. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 14: e2022MS003204. DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003204
Dai M., Su J., Zhao Y., et al (2022). Carbon Fluxes in the Coastal Ocean: Synthesis, Boundary Processes, and Future Trends. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 50: 593-626. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-090746
Davies-Barnard T., Zaehle S., and Friedlingstein P. (2022). Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models. Biogeosciences 19: 3491-3503. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022
Friedlingstein P., Jones M.W., O'Sullivan M., et al. (2022). Global Carbon Budget 2021. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14: 1917-2005. DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022
Friedlingstein P., O'Sullivan M., Jones M. W., et al. (2022). Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14: 4811–4900. DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022.
Hardouin L., Delire C., Decharme B., et al. (2022). Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing. Environ. Res. Lett. 17: 094033. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac888d
Jackson R.B., Friedlingstein P., Le Quéré C., et al. (2022). Global fossil carbon emissions rebound near pre-COVID-19 levels. Environ. Res. Lett. 17: 031001. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac55b6
Jenkins S., Sanderson B., Peters G., et al. (2022). The Multi-Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy. Geophysical Research Letters 49: e2022GL101047. DOI: 10.1029/2022GL101047
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Kondo M., Sitch S., Ciais P., et al. (2022). Are land-use change emissions in Southeast Asia decreasing or increasing? Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36: e2020GB006909. DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006909
Koven C.D., Arora V.K., Cadule P., et al. (2022). Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios. Earth Syst. Dynam. 13: 885–909. DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
Kwiatkowski L., Torres O., Aumont O., and Orr J.C. (2022). Modified future diurnal variability of the global surface ocean CO2 system. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16514
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Lauvset S.K., Lange N., Tanhua T., et al. (2022). GLODAPv2.2022: the latest version of the global interior ocean biogeochemical data product. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14: 5543–5572. DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-5543-2022
Liu Z., Deng Z., Zhu B. et al. (2022). Global patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19. Nat. Geosci. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-022-00965-8
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Padrón R.S., Gudmundsson L., Liu L., et al. (2022). Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections. Biogeosciences 19: 5435–5448. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022
Parry I. M., Ritchie P. D. L., and Cox, P. M. (2022). Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models. Earth Syst. Dynam. 13: 1667–1675. DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022.
Qiu C., Ciais P., Zhu D., et al. (2022). A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands. One Earth 5: 86-97. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
Ritchie P.D.L., Parry I., Clarke J.J. et al. (2022). Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia. Commun Earth Environ 3: 199. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0
Rosan T.M., Sitch S., Mercado L.M., et al. (2022). Fragmentation-Driven Divergent Trends in Burned Area in Amazonia and Cerrado. Front. For. Glob. Change 5: 801408. DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2022.801408
Sanderson B. M. and Rugenstein M. (2022). Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance. Earth Syst. Dynam. 13: 1715–1736. DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022
Terhaar J., Frölicher T. L., and Joos F. (2022). Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models. Biogeosciences 19: 4431-4457. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
Tschumi E., Lienert S., van der Wiel K., et al. (2022). The effects of varying drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition. Biogeosciences 19: 1979-1993. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022
Vaittinada Ayar P., Bopp L., Christian J. R., et al. (2022). Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario. Earth Syst. Dynam. 13: 1097–1118. DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022
Varney R.M., Chadburn S.E., Burke E.J., and Cox P.M. (2022). Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models. Biogeosciences 19: 4671-4704. DOI: 10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022
Yun J., Jeong S., Gruber N. et al. (2022). Enhance seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 by the changing Southern Ocean carbon sink. Science Advances 8 (41). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0220
Zechlau S., Schlund M., Cox P. M. et al. (2022). Do Emergent Constraints on Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Hold in CMIP6? JGR Biosciences 127: e2022JG006985. DOI: 10.1029/2022JG006985
Zhang Y., Narayanappa D., Ciais P., et al. (2022). Evaluating the vegetation–atmosphere coupling strength of ORCHIDEE land surface model (v7266). Geosci. Model Dev. 15: 9111–9125. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-9111-2022
Allen M., Tanaka K., Macey A., et al. (2021). Ensuring that offsets and other internationally transferred mitigation outcomes contribute effectively to limiting global warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 16: 074009. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abfcf9
Bastos A., Orth R., Reichstein M., et al. (2021). Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019. Earth Syst. Dynam. 12, 1015-1035. DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021.
Cain M., Jenkins S., Allen M.R., et al. (2022). Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 380: 20200456. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0456
Clarke J., Huntingford C., Ritchie P. et al. (2021). The compost bomb instability in the continuum limit. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 230: 3335-3341. DOI: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00013-3
Fay A.R., Gregor L., Landschützer P., et al. (2021). SeaFlux: harmonization of air–sea CO2 fluxes from surface pCO2 data products using a standardized approach. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13: 4693–4710. DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-4693-2021
Frischknecht T., Ekici A., and Joos F. (2022). Radiocarbon in the land and ocean components of the Community Earth System Model. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36: e2021GB007042. DOI: 10.1029/2021GB007042
Ghiggi G., Humphrey V., Seneviratne S.I., and Gudmundsson L. (2021). G-RUN ENSEMBLE: A multi-forcing observation-based global runoff reanalysis. Water Resources Research 57: e2020WR028787. DOI: 10.1029/2020WR028787
Gier B. K., Buchwitz M., Reuter M. et al (2021). Spatially resolved evaluation of Earth system models with satellite column-averaged CO2. EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11848. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11848.
Gloege L., McKinley G.A., Landschützer P., et al. (2021). Quantifying errors in observationally based estimates of ocean carbon sink variability. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 35: e2020GB006788. DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006788
Gregor L., and Gruber N. (2021). OceanSODA-ETHZ: a global gridded data set of the surface ocean carbonate system for seasonal to decadal studies of ocean acidification. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13: 777–808. DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-777-2021.
Hegerl G. C., Ballinger A.P., Booth B. B. B., et al. (2021). Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections. Front. Clim. 3: 678109. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
Humphrey V., Berg A., Ciais P. et al. (2021). Soil moisture–atmosphere feedback dominates land carbon uptake variability. Nature 592: 65–69. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03325-5
Jenkins S., Cain M., Friedlingstein, P. et al. (2021). Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets. npj Clim Atmos Sci 4: 47. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00203-9
Jones M. W., Andrew R. M., Peters G. P., et al. (2021). Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018. Sci Data 8: 2. DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00779-6
Jones, C. D., Hickman, J. E., Rumbold, S. T., et al. (2021). The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID‐19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091883. DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091883
Lacroix F., Ilyina T., Laruelle G. G., and Regnier P. (2021). Reconstructing the preindustrial coastal carbon cycle through a global ocean circulation model: was the global continental shelf already both autotrophic and a CO2 sink? Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 35: e2020GB006603. DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006603.
Lacroix, F., Ilyina, T., Mathis, M., et al. (2021). Historical increases in land-derived nutrient inputs may alleviate effects of a changing physical climate on the oceanic carbon cycle. Global Change Biology 00: 1–23. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15822
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Leach N. J., Jenkins S., Nicholls Z., et al. (2021). FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. Geosci. Model Dev. 14: 3007–3036. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
Loughran T.F., Boysen L., Bastos A. et al. (2021). Past and Future Climate Variability Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Budget Using the MPI Grand Ensemble. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 35: e2021GB007019. DOI: 10.1029/2021GB007019
MacBean N., Scott R.L., Biederman J.A. et al. (2021). Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems. Environ. Res. Lett. 16: 094023. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1a38
Maignan F., Abadie C., Remaud M., et al. (2021). Carbonyl sulfide: comparing a mechanistic representation of the vegetation uptake in a land surface model and the leaf relative uptake approach. Biogeosciences 18: 2917-2955. DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021
Müller J. and Joos F. (2021). Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum. Biogeosciences 18: 3657-3687. DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
O'Sullivan M., Zhang Y., Bellouin N. et al. (2021). Aerosol–light interactions reduce the carbon budget imbalance. Environ. Res. Lett. 16: 124072. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3b77
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Spring A., Dunkl I., Li H., et al. (2021). Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle. Earth Syst. Dynam. 12: 1139–1167. DOI: 10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021
Tagliabue A., Kwiatkowski L., Bopp L., et al. (2021). Persistent Uncertainties in Ocean Net Primary Production Climate Change Projections at Regional Scales Raise Challenges for Assessing Impacts on Ecosystem Services. Front. Clim. 3: 738224. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.738224
Teckentrup L., De Kauwe M.G., Pitman A.J., et al. (2021). Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models. Biogeosciences 18: 5639-5668. DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021
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Terhaar J., Frölicher T. L., and Joos F. (2021). Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon sink constrained by sea surface salinity. Sci. Adv. 7 (18): eabd5964. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd5964
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Zhang, Y., Ciais, P., Boucher, O., et al. (2021). Disentangling the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on terrestrial carbon cycle during 1850–2014. Earth's Future 9: e2021EF002035. DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002035
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Davies-Barnard T., Meyerholt J., Zaehle S., et al. (2020). Supplement of Nitrogen cycling in CMIP6 land surface models: progress and limitations, Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148. DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020-supplement.
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