The evolution of climate change depends on the development of our society, demographics and economics over the next decades. Limiting global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, or preferably to 1.5°C as it is established in the Paris Agreement, would only be possible if we stop emitting greenhouse gases as soon as possible. On the current trajectories, the world is set to warm by around 2.5°C by 2100, and continue upwards thereafter.
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) is hosting its yearly General Assembly on 23-27 May 2022. The conference brings together scientists from the Earth, planetary and space science fields to present and discuss the latest research in their fields, in particular targeting early-career scientists.
A number of 4C researchers are participating in the event, presenting their findings on carbon cycle research and climate predictions. Policy-relevant results that can help reduce uncertainties and move towards a net-zero world are also showcased.
In 2018 and 2019, exceptional dry and hot summers had strong negative impacts on ecosystems and vegetation in central Europe, causing widespread browning and tree mortality events. Extreme dry and hot events like these have become more frequent over the past decades in western and central Europe, a trend that is expected to continue as global mean temperatures rise, posing a major threat to the stability of European forests.
Marine primary production is the foundation of the marine food chain and ocean ecosystems. It primarily occurs via photosynthesis by phytoplankton, which use inorganic carbon and nutrients to produce organic matter.
The 4C Carbon Outlook, released in November 2021, is warning that stronger climate policies are needed to trigger the necessary short-term action to reduce CO2 emissions sufficiently in the coming decade to keep the option for 1.5°C alive.
The UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) is the yearly summit that brings together world leaders, scientists and civil society to discuss greenhouse gas emissions and the measures that have been taken or need to be taken to address climate change.
The conference is crucial for negotiating action to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees and aiming at 1.5 degrees, in line with the Paris Agreement, which was first adopted during COP21 in 2015.
COP26 is the 26th COP summit, taking place in Glasgow, UK between 31 October and 12 November 2021.
The carbon budget is a powerful concept developed in the last decade to assess how much additional carbon dioxide (CO2) humans can emit before a temperature target will be reached with a given probability. It provides critical knowledge to policymakers in order to prepare appropriate mitigation plans.
Better understanding the relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO2 emissions is crucial in determining how the global mean temperature will change after emissions reach zero.
As part of 4C, a European project researching climate-carbon interactions in the current century, four new datasets related with carbon dioxide (CO2) have been prepared and are now available to download. These datasets provide important information and data for climate research. They cover the following topics:
The Southern Ocean dominates the oceanic uptake of human-made CO2. Projections show that the world's largest oceanic carbon sink will be able to absorb about 244 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere over the period from 1850 to 2100 under a high emissions scenario.
Carbon is an important element for life on Earth. It is found in all components of the Earth system: the atmosphere, land, lithosphere and oceans, which serve as carbon reservoirs. The processes through which carbon is exchanged between these reservoirs make-up the global carbon cycle.